New Youtube Videos 5/2/2016

MONDAY, MAY 02, 2016

Youtube

Videos posted to various livestock related videos yesterday...


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Online Sale Monitor

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
GTWY DJANGO 3A (I80)

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
GTWY DJANGO 3A (I80)

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
GCC Goose 3110

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
GOET I-80

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
BK Ambush A100

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
I Deliver

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
GOET I-80

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Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
F Fast Forward 204

Mustian Cattle Online Heifer & Genetic Sale
19 Lots on BWOS
Buck Cattle Spring Edition Round 2 Online Sale
12 Lots on BWOS
R Cattle Company Genetic Gems Sale
10 Lots on BWOS

Yesterday's Online Sales

Holmes Show Cattle Elite Genetic Sale 5-2-16
9 Embryo lots avg $611
4 Semen lots avg $2,571
4 Sexed Semens avg $143
View All
Ryan Sweet Show Cattle Online Steer Sale 5-2-16
2 Semen lots avg $20
5 Steers avg $2,740
View All
Venable Show Cattle Online Sale 5-2-16
1 Heifer avg $3,250
5 Steers avg $2,070
View All
Jones Cattle Co Online Steer Sale 5-2-16
3 Steers avg $2,917
View All
Griswold Cattle Semen Sale 5-2-16
19 Semen lots avg $35
14 Sexed Semens avg $291
View All
Begalka Livestock Online Semen and Embryo Sale 5-2-16
7 Embryo lots avg $507
12 Semen lots avg $45
View All
Morgan Cattle and Friends Semen and Embryo Sale 5-2-16
7 Embryo lots avg $482
2 Semen lots avg $215
View All

Recent Updates

Top Web Sale Lots Week of 4/25/2016

SUNDAY, MAY 01, 2016

Sale Reports

Top individual sale lots of the past week...

  1. $10,500 - Heifer sired by Hoo Cares
    Aces Wild Ranch Southern Belles Online Sale 5-1-16 #1
  2. $8,750 - Heifer sired by 05s Lil Rodney
    K Bar C Mini Herefords Online Sale 4-27-16 #3
  3. $7,500 - Steer sired by Fifty
    Airhart Show Cattle Online Steer Sale 4-27-16 #24
  4. $6,750 - Heifer sired by Shark
    Day Show Cattle Pasture Upgrade Online Heifer Sale 4-28-16 #8
  5. $6,500 - Bull sired by Overkill
    Airhart Show Cattle Online Steer Sale 4-27-16 #1
  6. $6,000 - Steer sired by Overkill
    Airhart Show Cattle Online Steer Sale 4-27-16 #4
  7. $5,500 - Heifer sired by Better Made
    Day Show Cattle Pasture Upgrade Online Heifer Sale 4-28-16 #1
  8. $5,000 - Steer sired by American Heat
    Airhart Show Cattle Online Steer Sale 4-27-16 #8
  9. $4,751 - Steer sired by Z22
    Airhart Show Cattle Online Steer Sale 4-27-16 #2
  10. $4,750 - Heifer sired by Business Done Right
    Day Show Cattle Pasture Upgrade Online Heifer Sale 4-28-16 #10

2.0 & High Select

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2016

I was looking through the scores of placings submitted on Livestockjudging.com the other day and noticed the the placings for most of the slaughter classes are abysmal relative to the placing classes.
Grading all steers 2.0/High Select would have done better than the average at TX FFA contest 4 of past 6 years.

In a bit of a panic that our slaughter grades are way off (we use the placings from the real contests for them) I looked at real world contests to see what is normal for slaughter classes.

The average score of the placing classes as well as female selection classes at the Texas state FFA judging contest is almost always right around 45 points.

Slaughter cattle grading?

The average score for the 6 classes since 2010 is 37.79.  That’s not good.

You’d almost think that score is worse than kids would do by not even looking at the classes and guessing.

And you’d be right.

If a student had placed the slaughter cattle classes at the state FFA contest by just penciling in 2.0 and High Select for each animal over the past six years, they’d have averaged 39.33 points over that same time period, an improvement of 1.5 points.

Year All Contestant Average 2.0/High Select Score
2015 36.44 37
2014 40.57 42
2013 39.99 44
2012 37.34 37
2011 38.86 37
2010 33.52 39

Why 6 years?  Mainly because that time time range where the 2.0/High Select thing would have worked.

If you go back to 2007 the default a kid should choose switches to 2.5/High Select because they’d have scored a 48 on slaughter if they did that for all of the placings.  The contestants in the contest that year averaged just under 42 points.

To be clear, this isn’t a strategy to win the state contest this weekend.  The kids that win and the teams that win all outperform the average by 5+ points for the slaughter classes.  Of course they do, that’s why they win.  

It’s just a proof of an old rule of thumb that ag teachers try to beat into the heads of the rest of the kids when they have to pull out the calculators to figure out how bad they did on that class of slaughter cattle.

Modern Club Calf Bulls

TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2016



Top Web Sale Lots Week of 4/18/2016

SUNDAY, APRIL 24, 2016

Sale Reports

Top individual sale lots of the past week...

  1. $30,500 - Heifer sired by LT Rushmore 8060 Pld
    Wright Charolais Online Fall Born Show Heifer and Embryo Sale 4-21-16 #1
  2. $28,000 - Heifer sired by Two Step 20Z
    Hudson Pines Farm Heifers On the Hudson Fall Born Online Sale 4-19-16 #1
  3. $24,000 - Bull sired by Monopoly
    Ryan McIntosh Show Cattle Spring Sale 4-24-16 #2
  4. $18,500 - Bull sired by Monopoly
    Spring Smackdown Online Sale 4-24-16 #3
  5. $16,000 - Bull sired by Dakota Gold
    Red Diamond Cattle Pasture Candy Online Sale 4-20-16 #1
  6. $16,000 - Bull sired by Hi Ho Silver
    Ryan McIntosh Show Cattle Spring Sale 4-24-16 #1
  7. $11,500 - Heifer sired by Supremacy
    Hudson Pines Farm Heifers On the Hudson Fall Born Online Sale 4-19-16 #10
  8. $10,000 - Bull sired by Here I Am
    Spring Smackdown Online Sale 4-24-16 #21
  9. $9,500 - Heifer sired by Lutton Z305
    Hudson Pines Farm Heifers On the Hudson Fall Born Online Sale 4-19-16 #11
  10. $9,500 - Heifer sired by Man Among Boys
    Ryan Forman Heifer Sale 4-24-16 #2

Modern Ag Job - Sale Catalog Interpreter

FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2016

Don’t know if the female is selling whole?

She’s not, trust me.  I don’t care what sale it is; if she’s worth buying, she’s not selling without strings attached.

Have no fear, just hire a sale catalog interpreter, a job that has unfortunately become more and more necessary as the years go by.

Sale catalog interpreters read sale catalogs to figure out what exactly is selling in a particular lot.  They are well trained in reading the fine print of sale catalogs to figure out what exactly is selling and translate it that into terms a mere mortal such as yourself can understand..

Is that flush done at the buyer’s expense or the seller’s?

Is there actually going to be a flush?

What the heck does “at the buyer’s convenience” REALLY mean anyway?

I get how it works for bulls but how the hell does ½ possession work for a female?

Is this lot only being sold with restrictions to make the female seem like she’s better?

Does 1/3 embryo interest actually mean something or are they just making sure they can benefit from you taking a chance on a female?

Sale catalog interpreters are capable of answer all of those questions.  Well, most of them.  Okay, some of them.

Sale catalog interpreters are skilled at sorting through bull **** to tell you what it actually is that you are bidding on.

…for small fee of just 1/3 possession and 1/7 embryo interest with the option to triple down and get 150% of the female plus 1/13 semen interest in her second born son while retaining all cloning rights.

Don't worry, that 1/13 semen interest never gets enforced anyway.

Tax Day Was Monday

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2016

Tax day was Monday.

Did I tell you I got audited this year?  

I tend to play it extremely conservatively on my taxes out of a relatively unfounded fear of doing something wrong.  The IRS really isn’t that hard to work with on underpayment of taxes and it’s been my experience that they’ll agree to just about any reasonable payment schedule.

Regardless, my audit this year wasn’t an IRS audit; it was a Texas Workforce Commission audit.

The thing is, the only person I employ in the state of Texas is myself and I work from home.  In an attempt to get ahead of what was going to be a larger than normal 2014 tax bill, I paid myself a bonus at the end of December that year.  The bonus was setup so that virtually all of it went to my withholding.  Surepayroll processed it oddly and it didn’t show up in my various federal tax returns, state withholding reports, and Quickbooks the same way.  

Unfortunately, I also forgot I did it and during the Texas Workforce Commission audit, we spent about 45 minutes trying to figure out why there was a discrepancy.  I got to my wit’s end on the situation and wanted to find out how much I could pay to just make the matter go away.  Not a bribe, I just wanted to pay the maximum amount so I didn’t have to go through the process.

Me: “How much do I potentially owe in unemployment insurance?”

Her: “Well, let me see, your UI tax rate is 0.8% but that’s capped at your first $9,000 in income for the year”

Me: “Okay, well, we have determined that I made in excess of $9,000 a year, that’s pretty clear from my records.  Was there a problem with that tax?”

Her: “Oh, no, you paid that as scheduled.”

Me: “Okay, what else is there that I might owe in relation to this audit?”

Her: “Well, it’s just the unemployment insurance that we’re concerned with.”

Me: “Didn’t I pay the maximum I could have to pay in a year?”

Her: “Well, for you it is capped at 0.8% of $9000.”

Me: “Right, and evidently I paid that $72”

Her: “Yes, it appears so.”

Me: “So I don’t owe any unemployment tax on the remaining income for the year?”

Her: “Your rate is 0.8% and it’s only on the first $9,000 in income for the years.”

Me: “Well why are we trying to figure out the difference in income for a paycheck that was way, way past that $9,000 income?”

Her: “We have to make sure the numbers matchup with what we have on file.”

Me: “But didn’t I pay the entire amount I could possibly owe for the year?”

Her: “Well, again, your rate is 0.8% and that’s on the first $9,000 in income.”

Me: “We’ve been trying to figure out a discrepancy for the past hour on income that your department doesn’t tax?”

Her: “We just have to make sure the numbers match.”

Me: “I’ll be in my office.  Feel free to use whatever you want here in the kitchen.”

Yep, a government employee drove to my house for a two-hour audit by a commission that has already taxed me the maximum amount of money they could legally tax me for the year, $72.

$72.

I guarandamntee that lady made more auditing me than I actually pay the Texas Workforce Commission in unemployment insurance.

A Tragic Reminder of What People Will Remember

MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2016

A young man passed away in South Texas last Friday.

By all accounts, he was a great kid.  I know he was consistently upbeat when I saw him around the barns, he was well respected by his peers, and deeply loved by his family.  

I only met him directly one time and it was nothing more than that way you meet so many different people at stock shows.  It was a conversation amongst several people that he was a part of where at some point everyone goes around the circle and introduced themselves to the people they don’t know.  

I say that because I don’t want to sound like I’m in any sort of position to eulogize the young man in any credible way.

No, this post is about just one extremely small aspect of his life, one of his last Facebook posts.

When I heard that he had died in a car accident, I was fearful but not 100% sure that the news was about the young man I thought it was.  In fact, I had to go to Facebook to double check and see.

I’m not embarrassed to admit that I shed a small tear when I pulled his Facebook page up.

His Facebook page, at least the publicly available version of it, wasn’t the page of a young man doing teenage boy things.  It wasn’t a bunch of snarky and sarcastic memes.  It wasn’t anything the slightest bit inappropriate.

It was an extremely touching photo of him hugging his sister after he won his county show earlier this year.

I can only imagine what my Facebook page would look like if I were to unexpectedly pass away.  There was a time when it would have almost certainly been a picture of a steer’s butt or some sort of stock show humblebrag.  Nowadays, it would likely be a picture of my kids doing something at a tournament or playing whatever sport is currently in season.

As trivial as we can pretend Facebook and social media is, nowadays it matters.  It’s the last way many people will connect with you if you are taken too soon.  I don't think the young man could have picked a much better way to be remembered if he had tried.

When people go to Kollyn’s Facebook page now or years into the future, they’ll be reminded of a young man who loved show cattle and loved his sister.

What would they see on yours?

Top Web Sale Lots Week of 4/11/2016

SUNDAY, APRIL 17, 2016

Sale Reports

Top individual sale lots of the past week...

  1. $16,500 - Heifer sired by SHF Disco Thunder
    KLD Mini Herefords Online Sale 4-12-16 #2
  2. $16,500 - Heifer sired by Gup
    Scott Club Calves Online Heifer Sale 4-12-16 #1
  3. $16,500 - Semen sired by Dameron First Class
    Jason Scheetz Embryo Sale 4-14-16 #28
  4. $16,000 - Semen sired by Dameron First Class
    Jason Scheetz Embryo Sale 4-14-16 #29
  5. $12,500 - Heifer sired by Gambles Hot Rod
    RJ Cattle Fall Born Heifer Sale 4-12-16 #25
  6. $10,000 - Heifer sired by Delhawk Kahuna 1009 ET
    Clark Show Cattle Online Sale 4-12-16 #1
  7. $8,250 - Bred Cow sired by KAP Mt Rocky
    KLD Mini Herefords Online Sale 4-12-16 #24
  8. $8,250 - Steer sired by Starburst
    Tusa Cattle Spring Round up IV 4-12-16 #7
  9. $8,000 - Pair sired by JW Ariat
    KLD Mini Herefords Online Sale 4-12-16 #23
  10. $8,000 - Heifer sired by Turton
    Tusa Cattle Spring Round up IV 4-12-16 #1

Bulls and Fences

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 2016

The first time your bull jumps into your neighbor's place, it's because he's a bull.


The second time your bull jumps into your neighbor's place, it's because you've got a problem.

The third time your bull jumps into your neighbor's place, it's because you're an a-hole.

Top Web Sale Lots Week of 4/4/2016

SUNDAY, APRIL 10, 2016

Sale Reports

Top individual sale lots of the past week...

  1. $27,500 - Bull sired by BK Xikes X59
    Buck Cattle Online Spring Bull Sale 4-5-16 #1
  2. $20,750 - Bull sired by +Mr. V8 901/4
    V8 Ranch Performance Bull Sale 4-5-16 #8
  3. $17,500 - Heifer sired by WK Smooth
    Krebs Ranch Sweet 16 Online Heifer and Embryo Auction 4-5-16 #6
  4. $17,000 - Semen sired by Dameron First Class
    Scheetz Cattle Company Online Sale 4-5-16 #22a
  5. $16,500 - Heifer sired by CFCC Black Jack 001
    Krebs Ranch Sweet 16 Online Heifer and Embryo Auction 4-5-16 #3
  6. $16,500 - Semen sired by Dameron First Class
    Scheetz Cattle Company Online Sale 4-5-16 #22b
  7. $16,250 - Bull sired by Mr. V8 675/6
    V8 Ranch Performance Bull Sale 4-5-16 #10
  8. $16,000 - Bull sired by +JDH Mr Elmo Manso
    V8 Ranch Performance Bull Sale 4-5-16 #13
  9. $15,500 - Flush sired by Champion Hill Edition 2029
    Scheetz Cattle Company Online Sale 4-5-16 #4a
  10. $15,500 - Steer sired by Heat Wave
    Bar A Cattle/Sullivan Ranch Online Steer Sale 4-6-16 #5

Lower End Show Steer Prices vs Market Price

THURSDAY, APRIL 07, 2016

A chart of the 20th percentile of prices for steers sold online in the first quarter of the year divided by the value of a 500-lb large #1 feeder steer.

For example...

In 2016 the 20th percentile of steers sold online was $2,000.  The value of a 500-lb steer at $1.58lb (OUCH) is $790.  The ratio would be 2.53 or 253%.

Rise of Non-Standard Winning Bid Amounts

TUESDAY, APRIL 05, 2016

Those of you who remember the old days back when cattle used to be sold in live auctions with actual auctioneers remember them.  They were the guys that tried to bid $3,050 when the auction had been going in $250 increments all day long.

Most auctioneers would just ignore the bid but some would make a lesson out of him by slowing everything down to a crawl and proceeding the call the bids on that animal in $50 all the while mocking the guy who started the foolishness.

Then came online sales where you could bid do a $3,001 proxy bid and nobody would bat an eye.

Well, maybe the guy who bid $3,000 would while he’s looking at his computer screen….but it doesn’t matter because you’ll never meet that guy.

How frequently does that work in online steer sales?

The following chart is the percentage of steers sold online that year that sold for a final bid amount that was not divisible by $10 or $25.  For example, a calf that sells for $30,003.

There are 23,289 individual sale lots over the course of seven years in this data…


Steer Prices are Down

MONDAY, APRIL 04, 2016

If there were questions about whether or not the oil bust would play a role in a drop in steer prices, I think the numbers below answer that in the affirmative.

This is basically a “same store sales” type of comparison between the first quarter of 2015 and 2016 online steer sale seasons.  

The only steers that are included in these numbers are steers that sold in online sales between January and March from operations that sold cattle in online sales in both 2015 and 2016.  

There were 571 steers that sold in 49 sales by those 36 operations in 2015.

There were 593 steers that sold in 47 sales by those 36 operations in 2016.

I did that instead of the entire data set in order to do a more apples to apples comparison.  The numbers aren't down quite as much when you include the rest of the steers that have sold online, but they were still down.

Percentile 2015 2016
95th 11,000 10,000
90th 9,250 7,250
80th 6,000 5,310
70th 4,750 4,304
60th 3,990 3,500
50th 3,500 3,001
40th 3,000 2,750
30th 2,600 2,400
20th 2,251 2,000
10th 2,000 1,800
Aggregate
Count 571 593
Average 4,669 4,173

The data set includes the $53,000 MAB sired roan steer that increases the 2016 average sale price by about $80.

Outside of that one calf, the prices for steers sold in those sales is down from top to bottom.

The overall average was down by 11.5%.

The net difference in gross sales for those 36 operations was $294,128, about $8,000 per operation/partnership.

There were 48 steers that sold for $10k or more in those sales in 2015 (8.4%) but only 30 in 2016 (5%).

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