Blog Archive December 2012
Cattle.com Top individual sale lots of the past week...
- $36,500 - Bull sired by Irish Whiskey
- $24,500 - Bull sired by Friction
- $21,500 - Bull sired by Man Among Boys
- $20,000 - Heifer sired by Smilin Bob
- $15,000 - Bred Cow sired by CMAC Hard Core
- $14,500 - Bred Cow sired by Irish Whiskey
- $12,500 - Bred Heifer sired by Northern Improvement
- $12,000 - Bred Heifer sired by Hollywood
- $12,000 - Pregnancy sired by Irish Whiskey
- $11,500 - Bull sired by Monopoly
From Diamond G Cattle...
There are many people in this cattle industry that make being a part of it a true pleasure and Jared Bedwell was definitely one of them.
Top individual sale lots of the past week...
- $15,000 - Heifer sired by LSW WCC About Time X06 (True Grit)
- $11,550 - Heifer sired by Monopoly
- $10,000 - Heifer sired by Mercedes Benz
- $9,750 - Heifer sired by Solid Gold
- $9,005 - Bred Heifer sired by Cruise Control (Lutton son)
- $8,750 - Heifer sired by Monopoly
- $8,000 - Steer sired by Heat Wave
- $7,750 - Heifer sired by Mercedes Benz
- $7,001 - Bred Heifer sired by Hollywood
- $7,000 - Bred Heifer sired by Get it Done
I don't want the babies crying to overshadow Luke's "I'm going to burn your house down while you are sleeping" grin.
One from last year...
From Ahlin Cattle Company...
While taking the back roads to a sale this weekend we happened across something everyone knows happens but few rarely get to see. We got to watch some a-hole dropping off their pet on the side of the road. He was trying to be discrete about it, he didn’t see us until we came around a turn. As soon as we did come around that turn though, he HAULED out of there. We even made a halfhearted attempt at catching up with him with absolutely no luck.
Griping about that scum of the earth to people who read this site is preaching to the choir, hopefully this will rank on Google someday so somebody who doesn’t know what happens can read it.
Your parents told you your dog went to the country to live, what really happened?
For a while your dog just sat there on the side of the road waiting for them to come back. You know how much he loved you, he just wanted them to come back. He sat there with that yearning to go crazy and be happy that your parents remembered where they left him and came back for him. It was going to be the best reunion ever. They'd be there any minute. Any minute now.
Then he got thirsty or hungry and had to go look for food. “Oh look, there’s a nice farmers house” he thought as he trotted up the driveway. Of course when he got there he found the farmer’s dogs. It doesn’t matter what breed those dogs are, they’re used to this. This is their house and they’re not going to put up with another stray trying to get in on the action. Your dog got his behind kicked and ran away whimpering.
He didn’t know where to go so he went back to the spot where he was dropped off and sat there for a day. "This MUST be a mistake" he thought. "They'll be back any minute now". "Maybe that's them" he wondered every single time a vehicle would come into sight. "Oooh, maybe that one."
Eventually the hunger got to be too much so he went to find another house. This time he was lucky. There’s a kid there, not unlike you, and he really liked the new dog that came around. He gave him some meat he stole from the freezer and he started petting him. Then his dad came home, saw the dog, and said he’d have to get rid of it. The kid’s mom said that’s cruel and they had a fight. The dad finally agreed to let the dog stay for a few days because he’s tired of arguing and just wants to go to sleep before the fight gets any worse.
It was fabulous for your dog. There was open area and a kid that loves him.
Oh, and did I tell you? There were sheep and baby calves your dog could chase, just like your parents said. He’d chase them around and around but never caught them, it was heaven.
Then one day he did.
Then that farmer’s kid, who was probably not much different than you, had to go shoot your dog in the head because his dad says he needs to learn the facts of life.
Do you ever wonder where those guys in animal cruelty videos got that way? It was because they shot your dogs when they were kids.
Yes, that kid was very upset that he had to shoot your dog and mourned for him.
No, your dog didn’t get a burial and he wasn’t cremated.
He was drug out to the back of the ranch and his body was left there. First the coyotes showed up, they’re typically the first to find such animals. They took whichever parts of your dog they could. Eventually though, the buzzards got there and made a busy feasting circle around him as their grotesque beaks pecked at and tore away the flesh of your beloved dog. When they were done, a fire ant mound built up around the left over bones and picked away the remaining flesh.
And everyone that’s ever had to deal with you jack asses that drop dogs offout in the country hopes beyond hope that someday your parents will be driving down the road right when that buzzard starts to fly and he’ll slam through their windshield.
When the police arrive, one of the faint yet horrific scents that will be floating in the air will be the rot from the part of your dog's carcass where you hugged him as puppy.
Catherine Beville got back to me and said that Showmaxx has addressed the labeling issues and will be in production and available for sale in the near future.
Top individual sale lots of the past week...
- $82,500 - Bred Cow sired by Irish Whiskey
- $60,000 - Bred Cow sired by Irish Whiskey
- $57,000 - Heifer sired by Cerveza
- $48,000 - Heifer sired by Monopoly
- $46,000 - Heifer sired by SVF Steel Force S701
- $46,000 - Bred Heifer sired by SVF Steel Force S701
- $45,000 - Heifer sired by Irish Whiskey
- $45,000 - Heifer sired by Irish Whiskey
- $42,000 - Heifer sired by ZKCC Chopper 884U
- $40,500 - Heifer sired by Irish Whiskey
From Lautners...
Takes care of long time buyers
Makes sure the calves end up with good feeders.
Takes the amount the buyer will show the calf into account.
Makes sure you get good calves to new buyers.
Makes sure there’s the proper mix of local and out of area buyers.
Works with a calf crop that starts in September (exotics) and runs through January (brahman).
…all while making sure you get a good price for the calves?
Just leave it in the comments.
Thanks a bunch.
From Wade Rodgers, Chris Rosa, and Brad Smith...
Yeah, I know.
In about a bit of a quandary about what to do with the comments that have been submitted.
I know there's the breaks put out by Texas A&M.
Would there be any interest in an e-book (the only cost being ending up on another darn e-mail list) made up of this for each breed at the Texas majors...
Send me banners, pics, etc. on your Denver bulls between now and the National Western and we'll put them up here at no charge. I'll have a new Denver Coverage page up later today to list all of the known bulls.
Can you predict the weight breaks this year based on previous year trends?
A good portion of the big boys tend to say no but you know them, they don’t need to worry about weight breaks, their calves will win any way. What do the numbers say?
Welp, I put all the weight breaks from the big three Texas majors since 2006 into an Excel spreadsheet to see what I could find.
Will They Go Up?
Based on 528 data points…
How Much Do They Move?56% of the time they were down from the previous year.4% of the time they were the same as the previous year.40% of the time they were up over the previous year.
58% of the time they will be within +/- 1% of the previous year.
80% of the time they will be withing +/- 2% of the previous year.
5% of the time they will vary by 5% or more from the previous year.
Can you Model Them?
I tried applying about a dozen different models ranging from simple averages to finding the differentials and applying them. Here’s the results of those models back tested using the breaks from 2006-2012 and testing them against 2011 and 2012 weight breaks for Ft Worth, San Antonio, and Houston (176 back tests)…
What that means it the closest I got was something that predicts it within +/- 18lbs which is pretty much useless.10-4-3-2-1 Weighted Avg +/- 18.54 lbs4 Year Average +/- 18.65 lbsExp Weighted Avg +/- 18.70 lbs5-4-3-2-1 Weighted Avg +/- 18.86 lbs5 Year Average +/- 19.00 lbs3 Year Average +/- 19.28 lbsPrevious year +/- 19.87 lbs2 Year Average +/- 20.28 lbsMinus StDev +/- 23.67 lbsTwo Years Ago +/- 24.23 lbs.66 .33 Slope +/- 26.78 lbsPlus StDev +/- 29.40 lbsOne Year Slope +/- 30.85 lbs
Can You Spot Trends on a Chart?
Here’s the handy chart I was working up for somebody when I went down this rabbit hole…
Look at that blatant trend on the light weight break. Wow, from 2006 to 2011 it’s a well formed trend that would have obviously resulted in a break of 114….ah crap, why the hell did you hold that steer when you could have put another 60 lbs on him?
What CAN You Predict?
There's really only three spots where weight breaks have been consistent.
Ft Worth Polled Herefords break in that 1,300-1,310 on the top end.
Ft Worth Shorthorns have a fairly consistent break on both sides.
The first three AOB classes (the "maybe we're taking this whole moderate frame thing too far" division) at San Antonio break fairly consistently.
Which Breed Varies the Most?
Statistically speaking Red Angus varies the most which probably has something to do with what type of steers are actually in that class at the Texas majors and a bit to do with the lower entry count.
But You Know What?
I’m sure YOU are smarter than everyone else and can predict them.
Top individual sale lots of the past week...
- $55,000 - Bull sired by Mr NLC Upgrade U8676
- $42,500 - Bred Heifer sired by RSKY 8029 Hoss 7573
- $26,500 - Bred Heifer sired by S O S
- $25,000 - Heifer sired by Heat Wave
- $24,000 - Bred Heifer sired by Doctor Who
- $21,000 - Bred Heifer sired by Irish Whiskey
- $21,000 - Bred Heifer sired by Irish Whiskey
- $19,000 - Heifer sired by BKRI Trendsetter 501T
- $18,500 - Bred Heifer sired by Hard drive
- $18,000 - Bred Heifer sired by SVF Steel Force
This doesn’t apply to most of the people that read the blog but there’s a substantial amount of users that check this site for the way we organize the cattle market reports. Easily the most requested feature (even surpassing “don’t ever mention me on your site again”) is to archive sale reports from past dates.
Well, I finally did it.
Click the “View 1 Archived Report” and you’ll see a list a list of all of the reports we have archived for that sale barn or USDA report on the upper right hand side of the page.
It’s only started archiving today but from here on out it will check each day for updated reports.
Now if Texas would only get back to paying for the reports. Wait, get the government out of our business. Wait, I REALLY liked those reports. Wait, we have a budget crisis. Wait….
December 8th in Dunlap...
Wade Fisher shared a pretty good story on his IdealVideo Facebook page yesterday…
As cattle people we all know that at times we are in positions that we shouldn't be, or could not help but be. As videographers we more often than not find ourselves in those positions.
I don’t care how well behaved a bull is in his herd, when you get some of them by themselves, bulls will be bulls.
That sort of happened to me one time. I was filming Red Angus bulls at R.A. Brown looking through my viewfinder. While watching one slightly less calm bull (he really wasn’t bad) I saw him turn toward me and start running. In a reflex, I grabbed the $2,500 in equipment and jumped the fence as fast as I could.
I didn’t need a cowboy to save me, the bull was actually about 20 yards from me, I was just zoomed in really close and didn’t notice. It really impressed the actual cowboys who saw me grab my camera and jump a fence for a bull that was nowhere close to me.
In hopes of fostering better relationships between husbands and wives in homes without an outside sink, I’ve written up this set of rules that shall from here on out apply to the kitchen sinks in all homes where cattle are raised…
Rule #1 – Don’t Ask What He is Washing
You know better.
Pretend he’s washing dishes.
Yes, I know your plates don’t make a rattling sound like small chains. I know you don't have anything resembling an injection gun. Just stop thinking about it.
Rule #2 – If You Can’t Tell Your Kids, She’s Allowed to Get Mad
If you can’t tell your kids what it is you are washing in the sink, your wife is allowed to get mad at you if she finds out you are washing it there.
No, I don’t mean “this is what the stork uses to make those cute calves”. I mean tell your four year old where you stick it, what you thawed with it, or what you pulled on with it.
Rule #3 – Leave it Better
If you do wash that nasty stuff with your wife’s sink, it is your duty to make sure you leave the sink even cleaner than those pulling chains. Did you wash them with Betadine? Then wash that sink with Betadine too. Then use her hand soap to wash it and cover up the smell so she doesn’t know what you did.
Leaving any indication of blood, uterine discharge, manure, or non-spermicidal lubricant is fair grounds for a swift kick to your ass.
As previously announced, we’ll be going to Denver again next January.
How’s it going to work this year?
Wade Fisher and Joeleynn (Joe-Ellen) Donough will be doing the bulk (all) of the bull filming. It’s hard to call them the Cattle.com videos; all I really do is pay the expenses. The actual work is done by the crew from Ideal Video Productions.
My brother and his girlfriend will be assisting them all day Friday. Hopefully, with two crews of two people we'll be able to get all your bulls done the day they are the most fresh.
I won’t be getting into Denver until Saturday morning. It’s always been an issue but this year we have too many calves showing in their county shows on Friday. As two folks up in South Dakota will testify, I don’t ever need to spend another Thursday night in downtown Denver any way.
Saturday, Wade and Joelynn will attempt to finish up any bulls that were missed on Friday and we’ll attempt to do as many interviews as we can. This year it will be either Wade, myself, or both doing most of the interviews.
With two cameramen, hopefully everything will be done Saturday, if not Friday. If not, we’ll do any missing bulls on Sunday.
We do these videos to be as informative, helpful, and fair as they can possibly be. ShowChampions has exclusive rights to professional videotaping on the grounds of the National Western this year. If you’d like to have a promotional picture and video done of your bull, get in touch with them about their very reasonable options.
We’re the only ones that have permission from the NWSS and Show Champions to video tape the bulls in Herd Bull Alley. I can virtually guarantee you my biggest fan will be there. If you aren’t comfortable with a "self-proclaimed mail order bride guru" who has openly stated he thinks we are intentionally showing the bulls at favorable angles videotaping your bull, don’t wait, you need to do something about it when you see him. There will be a scene. Call the livestock office or myself (210.380.7459).
The guys in charge in Denver have lives and the people that matter didn’t even know he was there last year until several months later. If he wants to make a scene with security from the National Western so be it.
Top individual sale lots of the past week...
- $73,500 - Heifer sired by Next Big Thing
- $51,500 - Heifer sired by Monopoly
- $40,500 - Heifer sired by PVF Insight 0129
- $32,000 - Heifer sired by Alias
- $30,000 - Heifer sired by B C Lookout 7024
- $29,000 - Heifer sired by PVF Windfall SCC 9005
- $28,250 - Heifer sired by Fatt Butt
- $25,000 - Heifer sired by Sandeens SOS
- $24,500 - Heifer sired by Silveiras Style
- $24,500 - Heifer sired by S A V Brilliance 8077
Past Posts
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